Thursday, December 25, 2008

Understanding Rollovers and Interest Rates

One market convention unique to currencies is rollovers. A rollover is a transaction where an open position from one value date (settlement date) is rolled over into the next value date. Rollovers represent the intersection of interest-rate markets and forex markets.

Currency is money, after all

Rollover rates are based on the difference in interest rates of the two currencies in the pair you’re trading. That’s because what you’re actually trading is good old-fashioned cash. When you’re long a currency, it’s like having a deposit in the bank. If you’re short a currency, it’s like having borrowed a loan. Just as you would expect to earn interest on a bank deposit or pay interest on a loan, you should expect an interest gain/expense for holding a currency position over the change in value. Think of an open currency position as one account with a positive balance (the currency you’re long) and one with a negative balance (the currency you’re short).

But because your accounts are in two different currencies, the two interest rates of the different countries apply. The difference between the interest rates in the two countries is called the interest-rate differential. The larger the interestrate differential, the larger the impact from rollovers. The narrower the interest-rate differential, the smaller the effect from rollovers. You can find relevant interest-rate levels of the major currencies from any number of financial-market Web sites. Look for the base or benchmark lending rates in each country.

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